HSI Model for Eurasian Otter in Pakistan
Pakistan J. Wildl., vol. 16(2), pp 1-12, 2025
Habitat Suitability and Future Projections for Eurasian Otters (Lutra lutra) in Pakistan Using Species Distribution Modelling
Zafar Ali1, Muhammad Nafees1, Sahar Suleman2*, Ikram Ullah2, Waseem Ahmad Khan2 & Mohsin Ali3
1Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Peshawar, Peshawar, Pakistan
2Pakistan Wildlife Foundation, Islamabad, Pakistan
3Punjab wildlife and Parks Department, Lahore
Correspondence author:[email protected]
Running Title: HSI Model for Eurasian Otter in Pakistan
ABSTRACT
The Eurasian otter (Lutra lutra), an important freshwater species that is an indicator of fresh water health, is declining in Pakistan due to habitat loss and climate change. This study applied the MaxEnt model to map current otter habitats and to predict future changes under climate scenarios (RCPs 2.6–8.5) for 2050 and 2070 in Pakistan. Field surveys confirmed 80 otter locations across northern Pakistan’s rivers and wetlands, while environmental data (temperature, rainfall, elevation) helped identify key survival factors. The model showed high accuracy (AUC = 0.916), revealing that 9.6 % of Pakistan (76 400 km²)—primarily the Indus Basin, Himalayan streams, and mangroves—is currently suitable for otters. Summer humidity (vapr07) and winter temperatures (tmin12) were the most critical factors, with otters favoring areas where temperatures stay between 5°C and 25°C. However, future projections predict severe declines: habitats could shrink by 85 % by 2070 under RCP 8.5, with connectivity dropping 67%, isolating populations. Northern regions like Kaghan Valley face near-total habitat loss, while coastal mangroves offer limited refuge. Unlike in Europe, Pakistan’s otters are highly sensitive to human disturbances (>50 persons/km²), worsened by dams and farming. By safeguarding otters, Pakistan can protect both biodiversity and vital water resources.
Keywords: Climate change, Future SDM, GIS, QGIS, MaxEnt model